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title: The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe is Tomorrow’s Mainstream author: Amy Webb type: #Book link: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/29502380-the-signals-are-talking?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=WWip2JB4o6&rank=1

Tags: #lit #moc

Notes

Trendspotting

  • ¶ Trend (foresight)
  • Future trends emerge when a fundamental human need is met by a new enabling technology.
  • Inflection points reveal themselves first at the edges
  • ¶ The genie problem

Barriers to spotting trends

  • Change is disorienting because it is constant
  • ¶ Paradox of the present
  • Market research
  • Protect dissent - To overcome our “belief bias,” we must engage in deliberate disagreement
  • We understimate the importance of things not directly relevant to us

Methods and frameworks

  • Amy Webb’s method for finding the future
  • CIPHER method for trendspotting
  • Think about the future across multiple planes and timezones
  • Market research is a poor tool for trendspotting

Communicating about the future

  • Narrative helps the human mind make sense of events

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Copyright David Drysdale